Alberta’s Housing Market Story: Lower Rents, Shifting Sales, and What’s Next
As 2024 winds down, Alberta’s housing market is showing intriguing shifts in rent prices, home sales, and broader real estate trends—all influenced by local and national dynamics. For the everyday Albertan, these changes offer a mix of opportunities and challenges.
A Tale of Two Rental Markets
Across Canada, average rent in October 2024 fell for the first time in three years, dropping 1.2% year-over-year to $2,152 per month. But in Alberta, the picture is more nuanced. Edmonton stood out with an 8% increase in rent for vacant apartments and condos compared to last year, while Calgary saw a 5% decline—the third consecutive monthly drop after three years of relentless increases. Despite these differences, both cities remain far more affordable than Vancouver, where average rent hovers at a staggering $2,945 per month.
What’s driving this divergence? In Edmonton, rising rents are partly fueled by an influx of people from Calgary and beyond, drawn to the city’s relative affordability. However, Calgary’s rents have softened due to a significant increase in new rental stock, offering some relief to tenants after years of record-high prices. Fort McMurray, meanwhile, remains the least expensive market in Canada, offering an alternative for those seeking even lower costs.
Looking ahead, federal caps on international migration could slow population growth and reduce upward pressure on rents, while lower interest rates may push more renters toward homeownership—a shift likely to play out well into 2025.
Edmonton Home Sales: A Seasonal Chill or a Spring Preview?
November 2024 brought cooler weather and a noticeable slowdown in Edmonton’s real estate activity. Residential sales fell 22.8% from October but were still 18.4% higher than a year ago, reflecting long-term resilience. Inventory shrank significantly, dropping 12.1% month-over-month and 17.3% year-over-year, while new listings also fell by 27.9% compared to October. Despite the slowdown, prices tell a different story. The average price for all residential properties in Edmonton reached $436,401, up 14.7% from November 2023. Detached homes led the charge with a 12.8% annual increase, averaging $540,320. Apartment condos, traditionally more budget-friendly, also saw gains, with prices rising 17.0% year-over-year to $200,266. REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Melanie Boles noted, “The numbers reflect that the housing market is ready for its winter break while buyers and sellers focus on the holidays. With early whispers of a busy spring market in 2025, now is the time for savvy property owners and investors to engage a REALTOR® and start making plans for the year ahead.”
National Trends: What’s Fueling the Optimism?
On a national level, October’s real estate activity surprised many. Home sales jumped 7.7% month-over-month, reaching their highest levels since April 2022. Alberta’s affordability, combined with a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in late October, likely contributed to increased activity.
“October’s strong sales numbers across Canada suggest buyers have been in the market since rates began to fall in early summer, but they were waiting for the right property to come up for sale,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. He predicts that mortgage rates could hit their lowest point by spring 2025, spurring more home sales and listings.
What’s Next for Alberta?
For Alberta homeowners and renters, the road ahead looks promising but complex. Lower interest rates are making homeownership more attainable, but inventory shortages and rising prices may challenge affordability for some. Meanwhile, renters in Edmonton face rising costs driven by demand, while Calgary tenants could benefit from new supply and stabilizing prices.
Whether you’re looking to buy, sell, or rent, staying informed and working with a REALTOR® can help you navigate these changes. The first steps you take now could set the stage for success in 2025.
